Yet when to stabilize still need to
Source：本站 Date：2016-08-09 Hits 3015
Insiders pointed out that in dollar terms, in July the import and export is still showing a downward trend, showing the downward pressure on foreign trade is still great. The current downturn in the international market demand, exports in the short term it is difficult to improve; domestic economy downward pressure still exists, to inventory, deleveraging and policy has not changed and commodity prices in the short term will remain low trend, imports in the short term is unlikely to appear to grow substantially. In this context, foreign trade stabilization target still need to make strenuous efforts to improve.
July is the second half of the first month, the foreign trade situation how much attention. General Administration of customs data released in August 8th showed that in July the month, China's import and export value of 2 trillion and 90 billion yuan (the same below), down 0.9%. Among them, the export of 1 trillion and 220 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9%; imports of 873 billion yuan, down 5.7%; trade surplus of 342 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 34%.
Analysts pointed out that in July the export growth was better than expected mainly due to the impact of the devaluation of the renminbi. In dollar terms, import and export is still showing a downward trend, which shows that the downward pressure on foreign trade is still great. Because of internal and external need not appear significant improvement in the second half of the foreign trade situation is still not optimistic. It is worth noting that the role of private enterprises in foreign trade gradually highlights, the future policy should continue to deepen reform, promote trade facilitation and other direction of efforts to create a favorable environment for the development of private enterprises.
The situation is still not optimistic
According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China's import and export value of 13 trillion and 210 billion yuan, down 3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports 7 trillion and 600 billion yuan, down 1.6%; imports 5 trillion and 610 billion yuan, down 4.8%; the trade surplus of 1 trillion and 990 billion yuan, expanding by 8.7%. From July single month data, imports and exports continue to maintain a slight decline of 1%. It is worth mentioning that the export growth is more obvious, this is since March this year, exports for fifth consecutive months to achieve positive growth.
But according to the U.S. dollar, July exports fell by 4.4%, imports fell 12.5%, is still declining.
"The renminbi is growing, but the dollar is negative, the export situation is not optimistic about the situation." Su Ning, director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute of finance, senior researcher Huang Zhilong in an international business daily reporter interviewed said.
Huang Zhilong believes that in July export growth is related to the devaluation of the renminbi, while imports fell sharply in addition to the impact of commodity prices continue to fall, mainly due to the impact of domestic demand downturn. The size of the surplus continues to expand, forming a declining surplus, which must be paid attention to.
Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Foreign Trade Institute, Li Jian, a researcher at the International Business Daily reporter interview said that although denominated in dollars rose and fell and from the transaction situation has improved, but can only say that foreign trade tends to be stabilized, it can not be said to the upside. Foreign trade growth of new and old kinetic energy conversion also takes time, the short-term downward pressure still exists.
At the same time, the industry said that in July the U.S. dollar denominated export growth was negative, but compared to June rose 0.4 percentage points, or showing a certain recovery. Customs General Administration announced the foreign trade export pilot index also showed that in July China's foreign trade export pilot index was 33.8, up 1.1 from the previous month, showing that the four quarter of the first exit pressure is expected to reduce.
The gradual release of private enterprise vitality
For the future import and export situation how to judge, Huang Zhilong believes that the major countries in Europe and America economic recovery slow, emerging market countries economic pressures continue to increase, coupled with the rise of trade protectionism, future export growth is still great pressure. Imports mainly to see whether the domestic demand can be further improved.
Li Jian said that the international market demand remains in the doldrums, exports in the short term it is difficult to improve; domestic economy downward pressure still exists, to the inventory, to leverage the main policy has not changed and commodity prices in the short term will remain low trend, which makes imports in the short term gain is unlikely.
Data also show that from a specific country, the first 7 months, China's import and export growth in the EU, Japan and other trading partners, the United States, ASEAN and other trading partners, import and export decline. The EU remains China's largest trading partner. In addition, the first 7 months of China's general trade import and export fell slightly, but the proportion of foreign trade in foreign trade is still more than 50%, reaching 56.5%. Decline in exports of mechanical and electrical products, textiles and other parts of the traditional labor-intensive products export growth. "In the short term, due to the impact of some rigid demand, labor intensive products export growth, which does not indicate the change of China's export structure. In the middle and top grade products with high added value are still the development direction of China's foreign trade." Li Jian analysis.
It is worth noting that the first 7 months of private enterprises to import and export growth, the proportion increased. Data show that the first 7 months, private enterprises import and export 5 trillion and 120 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, accounting for 38.8% of China's total foreign trade, compared with the same period last year increased by 2.9 percentage points. Among them, the export of 3 trillion and 550 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 46.7% of the total export value of 1 trillion and 570 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%, accounting for 27.9% of the total value of imports.
In this regard, Li Jian analysis pointed out that from the data point of view, the private enterprise growth situation for the better, and region dominated by private companies, such as Zhejiang, Fujian and Shandong foreign trade will show positive growth, that private enterprises in transfer mode, adjust the structure than state-owned enterprises speed faster and more energetic. This is the positive factors for the development of China's foreign trade. "Future, policy pointing to the continue to deepen reform, decentralization and promote trade facilitation and direction, for private enterprises to create a good environment, to further stimulate the enormous potential of private enterprises in foreign trade firm. " Li Jian recommendations.
July is the second half of the first month, the foreign trade situation how much attention. General Administration of customs data released in August 8th showed that in July the month, China's import and export value of 2 trillion and 90 billion yuan (the same below), down 0.9%. Among them, the export of 1 trillion and 220 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9%; imports of 873 billion yuan, down 5.7%; trade surplus of 342 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 34%.
Analysts pointed out that in July the export growth was better than expected mainly due to the impact of the devaluation of the renminbi. In dollar terms, import and export is still showing a downward trend, which shows that the downward pressure on foreign trade is still great. Because of internal and external need not appear significant improvement in the second half of the foreign trade situation is still not optimistic. It is worth noting that the role of private enterprises in foreign trade gradually highlights, the future policy should continue to deepen reform, promote trade facilitation and other direction of efforts to create a favorable environment for the development of private enterprises.
The situation is still not optimistic
According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China's import and export value of 13 trillion and 210 billion yuan, down 3% over the same period last year. Among them, exports 7 trillion and 600 billion yuan, down 1.6%; imports 5 trillion and 610 billion yuan, down 4.8%; the trade surplus of 1 trillion and 990 billion yuan, expanding by 8.7%. From July single month data, imports and exports continue to maintain a slight decline of 1%. It is worth mentioning that the export growth is more obvious, this is since March this year, exports for fifth consecutive months to achieve positive growth.
But according to the U.S. dollar, July exports fell by 4.4%, imports fell 12.5%, is still declining.
"The renminbi is growing, but the dollar is negative, the export situation is not optimistic about the situation." Su Ning, director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute of finance, senior researcher Huang Zhilong in an international business daily reporter interviewed said.
Huang Zhilong believes that in July export growth is related to the devaluation of the renminbi, while imports fell sharply in addition to the impact of commodity prices continue to fall, mainly due to the impact of domestic demand downturn. The size of the surplus continues to expand, forming a declining surplus, which must be paid attention to.
Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Foreign Trade Institute, Li Jian, a researcher at the International Business Daily reporter interview said that although denominated in dollars rose and fell and from the transaction situation has improved, but can only say that foreign trade tends to be stabilized, it can not be said to the upside. Foreign trade growth of new and old kinetic energy conversion also takes time, the short-term downward pressure still exists.
At the same time, the industry said that in July the U.S. dollar denominated export growth was negative, but compared to June rose 0.4 percentage points, or showing a certain recovery. Customs General Administration announced the foreign trade export pilot index also showed that in July China's foreign trade export pilot index was 33.8, up 1.1 from the previous month, showing that the four quarter of the first exit pressure is expected to reduce.
The gradual release of private enterprise vitality
For the future import and export situation how to judge, Huang Zhilong believes that the major countries in Europe and America economic recovery slow, emerging market countries economic pressures continue to increase, coupled with the rise of trade protectionism, future export growth is still great pressure. Imports mainly to see whether the domestic demand can be further improved.
Li Jian said that the international market demand remains in the doldrums, exports in the short term it is difficult to improve; domestic economy downward pressure still exists, to the inventory, to leverage the main policy has not changed and commodity prices in the short term will remain low trend, which makes imports in the short term gain is unlikely.
Data also show that from a specific country, the first 7 months, China's import and export growth in the EU, Japan and other trading partners, the United States, ASEAN and other trading partners, import and export decline. The EU remains China's largest trading partner. In addition, the first 7 months of China's general trade import and export fell slightly, but the proportion of foreign trade in foreign trade is still more than 50%, reaching 56.5%. Decline in exports of mechanical and electrical products, textiles and other parts of the traditional labor-intensive products export growth. "In the short term, due to the impact of some rigid demand, labor intensive products export growth, which does not indicate the change of China's export structure. In the middle and top grade products with high added value are still the development direction of China's foreign trade." Li Jian analysis.
It is worth noting that the first 7 months of private enterprises to import and export growth, the proportion increased. Data show that the first 7 months, private enterprises import and export 5 trillion and 120 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%, accounting for 38.8% of China's total foreign trade, compared with the same period last year increased by 2.9 percentage points. Among them, the export of 3 trillion and 550 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%, accounting for 46.7% of the total export value of 1 trillion and 570 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%, accounting for 27.9% of the total value of imports.
In this regard, Li Jian analysis pointed out that from the data point of view, the private enterprise growth situation for the better, and region dominated by private companies, such as Zhejiang, Fujian and Shandong foreign trade will show positive growth, that private enterprises in transfer mode, adjust the structure than state-owned enterprises speed faster and more energetic. This is the positive factors for the development of China's foreign trade. "Future, policy pointing to the continue to deepen reform, decentralization and promote trade facilitation and direction, for private enterprises to create a good environment, to further stimulate the enormous potential of private enterprises in foreign trade firm. " Li Jian recommendations.